South Asia : Analysis of the Indian Elections and the Security situation in Sri Lanka and the Maldives
- Jun 29, 2014 -(Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies -IEEE an agency of the Ministry of Defense of Spain )
(Srimal Fernando , International Affairs Expert and a Global Editor for Foreign Exchange Diplomatic Society (FETDS) of South Africa)
Link ( http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2014/DIEEEO77-2014_AnalysisIndianElections_SrimalFernando.pdf)Abstract -
The year 2014 was an interesting for domestic politics and international relations in India.With
theworld watching the closely contested elections in India it was no
surprise to see Narendra Modi ledNational Democratic Alliance (NDA)
recording a massive election victory in the recently concluded elections
.The paper summarizes and gives a comprehensive overview of the Indian
national elections and focuses exclusively on the economy, the
international relations with neighbors and the national security of the
country.
The second case study in the paper examines the nature of decade’s
long insurgency in Sri Lanka andthe potential threats to the national
security after end of the war in May 2009. for the policymakers to
understand specifically about the broader peace building agenda and the
complexity of monitoring the human rights situation in Sri Lanka. Issue
of maritime security to the Maldives is briefly outlined as the third
case study in the paper.
Of the 7 billion people of the world ,
1. 4 billion live in the South Asian Region. India, with more than a
billion people and home to the world’s largest democracy saw a revival
of the Political order coming to dominate the entire country. In May
2014 India’s political landscape changed with 830 million Indian voters
choosing to elect 543 members to the lower house of parliament or
Loksbha.
The Loksbha election of 2014 saw a new
government and a Prime Minister in the Center. The paper analyses the
16th Loksabha elections of India. The Author in his paper analyses about
the newly elected Prime Minister of India and his efforts to build
friendly relations with India’s neighbors. It examines the performance
of the Indian economy, International relations with neighbors and the
national security of India.
The Sri Lankan Civil war was one of the
longest, complex and most destructive conflicts in Asia that ended more
than five years ago. The Paper examines how the violent radicalization
and ethnic hostilities that plunged Sri Lanka into a civil war. The
paper offers some peace-building efforts, democratization process that
has happened during the post conflict period in Sri Lanka . Even though
the war in Sri Lanka had ended, the main problem based on ethnicity is
still remaining and there are still potential threats to National
Security of Sri Lanka . The paper explores briefly about the Lessons
Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report and the impact of
the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) resolution.
Nearly 100,000 ships pass yearly close to
the Maldives and Sri Lanka on one of the main maritime lanes in the
World . Even though the current security situation in the Maldives is
peaceful and trouble-free ,the paper briefly outlines the potential
threat of piracy and infiltration of extremist groups to the Maldives .
The paper offers for International
Affairs experts , policymakers, Security strategist some lessons from
South Asian countries such as India ,Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
India
The 16th Loksabha elections of India
India, with more than a billion people
and home to the world’s largest democracy saw a revival of the Political
order coming to dominate the entire country. On May 16th 2014 India,
the home to the world’s largest democracy, chose to elect 543 members to
the 16th Loksabha elections. By late evening on May 16 ,2014 the
Barathiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) recorded
the biggest Lok-sabha election victory in the post – Independence
history of India . The Barathiya- Janata Party (BJP) led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) the main opposition party in India emerged
victorious winning 336 Loksbha seats with a 38.3 percent vote share.
While being overjoyed at the Loksabha election results Narendra Modi the
Barathiya Janata Party (BJP) Prime Minister in waiting said in his
victory speech India has won! This is India’s victory. “Achche din aane
waale hain (The good days are ahead).
There was nation-wide celebrations and
victory processions by enthusiastic youthful BJP and NDA supporters when
the election results were announced in India . The major political
partners of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprised of
Barathiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS), Telugu Desam Party (TDP),
Lok Janashakthi Party (LJP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Rashtriya Lok
Samata Party (RLS).
The Barathiya Janata Party (BJP) vote
share in the Loksabha elections made inroads into crucial states in
North India. The State of Uttar Pradesh is considered India’s most
populace state with the highest number of Loksabha seats. In Uttar
Pradesh alone the Barathiya Janata Party increased their vote bank and
representation to 71 out of 80 Loksabha seats.
Election Performance of major regional parties in India
Compared to previous elections the India
National Congress (INC) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) saw
its Loksabha vote bank erode to 61 Loksabha seats with 23 .3 percent
vote share in 2014 . The major regional parties such as All India Anna
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) of Tamil Nadu State , Trinamool
Congress (TMC) of West Bengal State and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) of Odisha
made significant gains in the Loksbha elections . All India Anna Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister
J.Jayalalitha won 37 Lok Sabha seats out of 39 seats .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
For the Barathiya Janata Party (BJP )
Narendra Modi was elected to the Loksabha seat of Varanasi by a thumping
margin of 3.5 lakhs votes defeating Arvind Kejriwal of Aam Aadmi Party
(AAP) in the temple town. Modi also won Vadodara by over 5.7 lakh votes .
Modi, the 63 year old Chief Minister from Gujarat nominated by the
Barathiya Janata Party (BJP) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the
16th Loksabha elections travelled 300,000 kilometers across 25 states
and addressed more than 400 rallies from September 15th ,2013 to May 10,
2014.
Friendly Relations with India’s neighbors
The Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has
been vocal and had clearly stated that it wants to improve relations
with India’s neighbors. Narendra Modi the Prime Minister designated has
extended invitations to the South Asian leaders to attend the swearing
in ceremony on May 26th ,2014 in New Delhi. Eight South Asian heads of
states were invited to the new Indian Prime Minister’s swearing-in
ceremony. Pakistan Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif’s participation added a new
dimension to the India –Pakistan relations. It was a historic moment
where the time has grown to heal the wounds between the two nuclear
armed neighbors who fought three wars since Independence from Britain in
1947. Fostering relations with India’s immediate neighborhood will
bring stability, lessen tension and improve the overall economic
situation across South Asia.
National Security of India
Among the eight South Asian countries
India with more than a million strong army personal is a nuclear armed
nation. Decades-old hostility between Pakistan and India continues to
serve as the backdrop for instability and tension across South Asia. The
state of Kashmir is divided between India and Pakistan . It is at the
heart of hostility between the neighbors and was the cause of two of
their three wars since independence from Britain in 1947. There could be
challenges to India –Pakistan relations if there are threats from
external or internal terrorist acts. Even though India spends nearly US$
37 billion (Estimates, 2013 )annually for national defense the country
poses security threats from many terrorist groups . Crossing
International Maritime Boundary Line ( IMBL) by Indian fishermen for
fishing in Sri Lankan waters has added a new dimension to the current
situation and could create tensions and future challenges to India -Sri
Lanka relations . Also the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean
states like the Maldives and Sri Lanka in the recent years has created a
uneasiness for India not only from it northern boarders ,but also from
the South.
Economic Performance of India
In the last few decades, India, the
economic giant of South Asia with a population of more than a billion
people, has been known for its fast ride onwards on the road of global
economy. The past several decades has seen the resource-rich Indian
economy changing, developing at a fast pace and enhancing the financial
status among the world’s most powerful nations. The real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) growth rates of India has shifted substantially over time
to an all time high of 9.6 percent in 2006 -2007 to 6.7 percent in 2011
-2012 periods withstanding the global financial crisis . Nowadays the
India is responding to internal and external economic challenges with
great creativity and initiative and endeavors to enhance new patterns of
global cooperation and developing a sustainable economic partnership to
build a better Indian society. India’s economy will remain robust and
will expands more than forecasted, despite the facts on GDP, inflation,
trade, business, and other data and analysis on its economy. The strong
Modi wave and the Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) landslide victory in the
recently concluded Loksabha election will establish a strong Government
in the Center . The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex lifted to a
record figure of 24,121.74 points as the Narendra Modi led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) won the historic elections in India. Today
India is under the wise leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and
will experience great progress and development. India will see a
transformation politically ,diplomatically, socially economically and in
regional security strategies.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Conflict
The major political conflict in Sri Lanka
in the post- Independence history originated in early 1970s. In 1971,
youth uprising led by Marxist political group known as the Janatha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was the first major political unrest in Sri
Lanka. The major political conflict in Sri Lanka in the post
Independence history originated in the early 1970s. According to
Abeyratne (2003), the conflict between Tamil people and Government has a
long history that goes to colonial period, but it has some economic
reasons too. Initially the Tamil separatist movement in Sri Lanka
materialized after the passing of the Vaddukoddai Resolution led by then
leaders of the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) in 1976
(Sabaratnam, 2010).
The conflict in Sri Lanka is an important
part of history which began in July 1983 and ended in May 2009. It
became a struggle for a revolutionary social transformation, by the
Tamil nationalist politicians since the passing of the Vaddukoddai
Resolution in 1976 .In this resolution they have declared that their
intention is to create a separate area in the Northern
(Jaffna,Kilinochchi,Mannar,Mullaitivu and Vavuniya.Districts ) and in
Eastern ( Trincomalee. Batticaloa , Ampara Districts ) Provinces for
Tamils living in Sri Lanka. The Northern and Eastern Provinces were
about a third the size of Sri Lanka .The majority of people living in
these two provinces were ethnic Tamils but there were also Sinhalese and
Muslims.
With this background separatist movement
started with its full strength in the Northern and Eastern Provinces in
Sri Lanka . The assassination of the moderate Tamil politicians such as
the Mayor of Jaffna, Alfred Duraiappah in 1975 and M. Canagaratnam a
Tamil Member of Parliament, in 1977 by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) led by Velupillai Prabhakaran was the first tragic lessons
of the Sri Lankan Northern insurrection . The on going violence turned
into a cycle of violence in 1983 after the killing of 13 Sri Lankan
government soldiers in the Northern Province. With this background
separatist movement of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was
started with its full strength in the Northern and Eastern Provinces in
Sri Lanka. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) led by Velupillai
Prabhakaran called Eelamist freedom fighters campaigned to “cleanse”
the North and Eastern provinces of Sinhalese and Muslims ethnic groups,
and create a Tamil homeland. There after Tamil separatist movement with
the label of ethnic conflict which ultimately got transformed into a
civil war began as a multi sided civil resistance. There were, horrific
atrocities , mass executions , slaughtering of hundreds of innocent men,
women and children in the boarder villages , bombs exploded and
hundreds of innocent people were killed or injured every day.
A9 high way that links North and
South of the Island was the place where most crucial battles took place
in the last stages of Sri Lankan conflict,( Eelam War IV ).For the first
time Sri Lankan security forces withdrew from Kilinochchi in 1990. Six
years after the LTTE taking control of Kilinochchi the Sri Lankan army
recaptured the town in 1996 . Two years after the defeat in Kilinochchi
the Tamil Tigers launched an operation known as Unceasing Waves II on
the Kilinochchi Military complex After the Sri Lankan military vacated,
the LTTE re-captured the town in September 1998. Kilinochchi was like a
fortress because it was the LTTE de facto administrative capital .
During the Eelam War IV the Sri Lankan security forces fought a “hybrid
terrorist organization that had three wings; land, sea going force and a
very rudimentary air force. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
suffered a stunning defeat in Kilinochchi and the Sri Lankan Security
forces was able to retake on 2nd January 2009 the Tamil Tigers de facto
administrative capital in Kilinochchi, and large swathes of territory
that was held by the Tamil Tigers for years .
Norwegian brokered Cease Fire Agreement (CFA)
In 2002 after nearly two decades of
fighting and failed tries at peace talks the Government of Sri Lanka
(GOSL) entered into a peace process with the LTTE through a Norwegian
brokered Cease Fire Agreement (CFA). The subsequent suspension of war
was seen as a great achievement in the peace process. The last window of
opportunity for peace emerged aftermath of the tsunami that struck Sri
Lanka in December 2004. The Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) was a fitful
peace and the prospect for Sri Lanka was gloomy.. During the four phases
of the conflict from 1983 to 2009 the LTTE has been benefited by the
Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora and the international support network.
The End of the Sri Lankan Conflict
Between 2005 to 2009 Sri Lankan Armed
Forces grew significantly. The number of Army personnel grew from
120,000 to over 200,000.After various setbacks in 2009 the Sri Lankan
government forces were able to defeat terrorism and established normalcy
throughout the country. The separatist war continued for last two
decades ended up as a civil war as stated by Heraclides (1997).
Heraclides has further stated that civil wars in general and more often
will end with military victory to one side. Peace is a necessary
precondition for sustained economic growth. Post-conflict reconstruction
was one of the most relevant course of actions to this. Even though the
war in Sri Lanka between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had ended, the main problem based on
ethnicity is still remaining. As the government was victories over the
war it should be victories by finding a proper and long lasting solution
to the ethnic conflict.
Post-conflict reconstruction
In the early months after the conflict
ended in Sri Lanka the burden of re-building was shouldered solely by
the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) to make the Conflict zones of
Northern and Eastern Provinces of Sri a better place to live in. Prior
to resettling of the internally displaced persons (IDP)s in areas where
there was war the Sri Lankan Security forces and the international
demining experts removed landmines through advanced demining procedures .
After the end of war five years ago specially in the Northern and
Eastern Provinces has made much progress in economic development and
political stability from the destruction of war to peace. Housing needs
are expectations of conflict affected communities in the former war torn
area .Under the Indian Government assistance nearly 3480 houses were
reconstructed and a total of 17,000 houses will be re-built in the
Killinochchi district in the next few years.
Kilinochchi -Colombo Train and the newly built Kilinochchi Station
In certain areas of the Northern and
Eastern provinces , life has come to a reasonable life like in the other
areas of the country. With availability of more consumer goods and
better housing the desperate situation of people in these provinces are
being alleviated . After the war ended, farming in the conflict affected
areas underwent enormous changes and has become more self-sufficient
with the introduction of modern machinery. The cultivation of paddy is
the main occupation for majority of the population in the Northern and
Eastern provinces of Sri Lanka . Large scale banana, chilies, papaw,
mango, grape and lime cultivation is undertaken by farmers in large
leased lands. Efficient transportation is a key factor for economic
development and providing friendly method of transport as well as a safe
and economical way of travelling . With many changes taking place in
Jaffna and Killinochchi the area is linking with rest of the country and
rebuilding of long neglected roads, rehabilitation and maintenance and
upgrading ageing transportation infrastructure within the districts.
After more than 23 years, single track line between Colombo and Jaffna
and Killinochchi has been re-constructed by the India Railway
Construction International Ltd. (IRCON) with the assistance of the
Indian Government.
Democratization and Peace-building
Democratization and peace-building are
closely inter liked. Political stability has been gradually restored in
the area. The recently held Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections
where the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won majority of the seats have
become a lens through which to observe the political changes. In Sri
Lanka Provincial Council elections were held in Western and in Southern
provinces in March 2014 . The United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA ) the
ruling party of the present government was able win 89 seats out of the
150 seats in both the provinces. Even though the main opposition party
the United National Party (UNP) was able to win 42 seats ,it was the
Democratic party and the Marxist Peoples Liberation Front also known as
the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party that increased their vote bank
and representation in the two provinces.
Potential Threats to National Security
In Sri Lanka , there are still potential
threats to National Security. The threat of terrorism re-emerging still
persists. The Sri Lanka Government raised the defense spending to $1.95
billon for the current year. Recovery of an arms cache, and shooting
incident involving LTTE terrorist named K.P Selvanayagam a.k.a Gobi is
evidence on attempts to reorganize and re-arm the terrorist out fit.
However the Sri Lankan Security forces were able to Kill K.P
Selvanayagam a.k.a Gobi and two other wanted terrorist in Nedunkerni
area in April this year. The Palk Bay, which connects north-eastern Sri
Lanka and the central part of the Tamil Nadu coastline, constitutes a
unique ecosystem. It is a shallow bay circumscribed by sea known for its
biodiversity (Venkataraman 2004). Crossing International Maritime
Boundary Line ( IMBL) by Indian fishermen for fishing in Sri Lankan
waters has added a new dimension to current situation . This has brought
Indian trawler fishers into regular conflict with the Sri Lankan navy .
These tensions have created tension in the Tamil Nadu state of India.
Muslims and Sinhalese Tension in the Southwestern part of Sri Lanka
Sri Lankan Sunday Times reported on 22
June 2014 an assault and abuse of a Buddhist monk and his three wheeler
scooter driver on 12 June 2014 who had been on their way to a religious
ceremony by Muslims motorcyclist in Dharga Town triggered violence and
had bred tension between the Muslim and Sinhalese communities living in
the Southwestern part of Sri Lanka . Later more violence broke out where
three persons were killed and seventy persons were wounded .Troops were
rushed to supplement police and Special task force (STF) commandos were
deployed under a prolong curfew, to bring the situation under control.
According to another opinion page report by Sunday Times on 29th June
2014 the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) has allocated SLRs 200 million
for the rehabilitation work in the affected areas,. Further seven
hundred soldiers from the Sri Lankan Army moved into the worst hit areas
where the Sinhalese and Muslims violence occurred for a major
rebuilding operations. The main task of the Sri Lanka troops will be to
re-construct 27 houses and 47 shops that was destroyed due to violence.
In addition the Sri Lanka troops will also carry out repairs to 67
damaged houses and 90 shops. On 23rd June 2014 the Sri Lankan External
Affairs Minister G.L .Peiris while addressing a group of Ambassadors
adds that strict instructions have been given to the Police not to
permit any rallies or any demonstrations which contravene law of the
International Convention on civil and Political rights Act passed by the
Parliament of Sri Lanka in 2007. Although tensions have lessened,
between the Muslims and Sinhalese communities there is a potential for
the security situation to deteriorate again if right steps are not taken
to prevent such incidences by the law enforcement agencies in the
future.
There are the remnants of the radical
groups that were involved in previous insurgencies in the South and are
trying to re organise within Sri Lanka and mobilise people to once again
take up their extreme left wing causes. Some of their activities
include radicalizing of students and encouraging them to take to the
streets in various protests.
Azar (1990) has described violent events
in developing countries as Protracted Social Conflicts (PSC). According
to Azar, formation of Protracted Social Conflicts will take place in a
country where it is composed with multi communal composition. In
relation to community content, there are multi communal and multi caste
multi religion situation could be seen in Sri Lanka. Azar (1990) was of
the view that grievances resulting from need deprivation are usually
expressed collectively. Failure to redress these grievances by the
authority cultivates a niche for a protracted social conflict. Under the
government role variable, the government of the country should ensure
that all communal groups under its jurisdiction should meet their basic
needs.
Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC)
According to the Lessons Learned and
Reconciliation Commission ( LLRC ) Report (2011), it is obvious that all
individuals, parties and organisation represented the LLRC hearings
have agreed to find a permanent solution to the problem but still failed
to do so by all parties, individuals and organisations.
“Representations before the Commission
were equally loud and clear that the people of all communities are ready
and willing, as they have always been, to use this opportunity to
promote reconciliation, amity and cooperation if the political
leadership from all parties on all sides of the ethnic divide, are
willing and able to lead the way. The Commission was further informed
that it is possible to do this if the political leaders of all
successive Governments, including the present Government, can summon the
political will and the courage to introspect and reflect on the past
failures and agree to nurture consensual decision making on issues of
national importance and do not resort to the adversarial politics of the
past, that sought short term electoral gain as against the long term
national interest(8.143)” is mentioned in the Lessons Learned and
Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report in 2011.
The United Nations Human Rights
Council (UNHRC) resolution “Promoting Reconciliation, Accountability and
Human Rights in Sri Lanka”
Despite India’s abstaining the United
States ( US) sponsored resolution at the United Nations Human Rights
Council (UNHRC) in Geneva which seeks to authorize the body to set up an
independent international inquiry” in Sri Lanka to probe into human
rights violations during Sri Lanka’s civil war against the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 was passed . With 23 members voting
in favour of the resolution while 12 voted against on 27th March 2014.
The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) adopted the resolution
titled Promoting Reconciliation, Accountability and Human Rights in Sri
Lanka requesting the Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights to
undertake a full investigation into alleged ,violations and abuses of
human rights related crimes by parties concerned during the period
covered by the Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC)
which examined the final year of the Sri Lankan conflict . However a
home grown solution is the best way to bring about reconciliation among
the two ethnically divided communities. However after the defeat of the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 India has taken tough
stand against the , Government of Sri Lanka at the United Nations Human
Rights Council due the influence of major Tamil Nadhu nationalistic
parties .Attempts by US backed resolution at the United Nations Human
Rights Council in Geneva to bring war crime issues against the Sri
Lankan government can be a drawback for future reconciliation efforts.
Therefore, it is necessary to build permanent Peace in Sri Lanka and
steps should be taken soon as possible.
The Maldives
Pricey threat and Infiltration of Extremist groups to the Maldives
The current security situation in the
Maldives is peaceful and trouble-free. Nearly 100,000 ships pass through
the Indian Ocean annually. The Maldives and Sri Lanka are located very
closely to this shipping lane . The immediate threat to this vital
shipping lane that that handles sixty per cent of the world’s oil cargo
and over fifty per cent of the world’s container traffic, has been
facing piracy threats in the last few years . However the Maldivian
authorities are currently detaining a number of individuals suspected to
have been involved in piracy .The United States that has an air base in
Diago -gracia will be pulling out by 2016 . The Maldives and Sri Lanka
could be vulnerable places for extremist groups to infiltrate and cause
hostilities within the region. The Maldivian Coast Guards needs to get
more naval assets so that it has the ability to patrol the Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ). As an emerging democracy, the Maldives faces
challenges, and is vulnerable to external shocks to its nascent
democracy.
Conclusion
With the elections in India ending in May
2014 South Asia will see a new shift in politics ,diplomacy ,economics,
governance and in regional security. In a Post-war environment, the
question of security has been at the top of the agenda for policy
makers. The Sri Lankan civil war and the Post-conflict rehabilitation
and reconciliation at a micro and macro levels and the gradual
democratization of the former war torn areas are lessons for the
national and International policymakers to consider when planning
national security strategies for conflict prevention operations .
Particularly security risks to the
sovereignty of a country must be negotiated with various political
parties at national and at regional levels and creating contacts with
democratic attitudes, that lead to agreement by consensus in post
conflict situations. The paper offers for International Affairs experts ,
policymakers, Security strategist lessons of politics, governance and
managing conflict situations from South Asian countries such as India
,Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
Srimal Fernando , International Affairs Expert and a Global Editor for Foreign Exchange Diplomatic Society (FETDS) of South Africa
Source (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies -IEEE an agency of the Ministry of Defense of Spain )
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